Would Virginia and West Virginia as One State be Blue, Red, or Purple?

The contemporary political landscape of the United States is marked by a mosaic of colors representing varying degrees of political leaning from red to blue. The states of Virginia and West Virginia, when considered together, present a unique juxtaposition of these political hues. Whether combined, would it result in a predominantly red, blue, or purple state?

Current Political Landscape

Having lived in both states, it's clear that Eastern Virginia, despite its larger liberal population, leans towards a more purple hue. The rest of Virginia and West Virginia, on the other hand, follow a more conservative path. This divide is evident in historical and recent electoral data.

Voting Patterns

When examining the electoral results from the past two decades, the trend is unmistakable. In 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush won both states with significant margins. However, Barack Obama managed to narrowly win Virginia twice. In 2016, Donald Trump managed a narrow victory by about 100,000 votes, flipping Virginia's political lean. Conversely, Joe Biden secured Virginia in 2020 with a margin of around 150,000 votes.

These outcomes suggest that a combined Virginia-West Virginia would likely be a purple state, with a split among the top three offices, including Governor and Senators. It is probable that the Governor would lean blue, due to the 2017 Virginia governor race, which was a significant Democratic victory. One or two Republican Senators could also hold the balance, as they might slightly outperform Donald Trump in specific counties, similar to the generic Republican performance in other mid-term elections.

Electoral College Impact

Combining the voting power of Virginia and West Virginia would significantly alter the balance of power in the Electoral College. Together, they would count for 16 electoral votes, providing a substantial swing state bloc. This cluster of swing states, encompassing Virginia and West Virginia, would collectively hold 72 electoral votes and could be pivotal in determining the outcome of an election. The potential of such a swing state would attract substantial campaign resources and political attention.

Trend Analysis

Between 2012 and 2016, the combined vote in the region was heavily contested. In 2016, Republicans narrowly won by about 110,000 votes, while in 2012, they won by 246,000, and in 2008, Democrats led by 130,000 votes, all with a slightly over 4 million votes cast. These percentages suggest a consistent swing state category, with regular shifts in political leanings.

Historical Context and Future Predictions

If Virginia and West Virginia were still a single state, the combined electoral results would likely favor Donald Trump in 2016 due to his substantial margin in West Virginia (68.5%). Conversely, Hillary Clinton won Virginia by 212,000 votes, while Trump secured West Virginia by 301,000 votes. This historical context underscores the potential for a split regional election outcome.

Even considering pre-1863 Virginia's political leanings, which were predominantly red, the re-settling of people from outside the South in the northern Virginia Capitol area has contributed to this gradual shift in political demographics. Over time, it is possible for this area to turn blue, though the reunification with West Virginia would likely delay this transformation.

Political Realignment Suggestion

A potential political realignment could see the northern Virginia counties that are part of the DC metro area separated to merge with Washington D.C. as a new entity, New Columbia. The rest of Virginia would then reunite with West Virginia. While this idea is unlikely to be enacted, it provides a clarifying perspective on the evolution of political demographics in the region.

In conclusion, while the reunification of Virginia and West Virginia would present a complex political landscape, it is likely to result in a purple state. Continuous shifts in voting patterns and demographic changes suggest that the region remains a dynamic swing state, affecting the national political balance.