Why the UK Continues to Contemplate a Hard Brexit

The United Kingdom's (UK) political landscape is rife with uncertainty, particularly surrounding its future relationship with the European Union (EU). Despite significant pushback from the general public, the UK continues to consider a hard Brexit. This article delves into the reasons behind this ongoing dilemma, examining the political dynamics and potential outcomes.

The Role of Westminster and Etonian Influence

The ongoing push for a hard Brexit can be partially attributed to a cynical narrative propagated by the political elites, predominantly the old Etonians who stand to benefit from continued disengagement with the EU. This narrative has misled the disenfranchised segment of the population, attributing all of the UK's problems to the EU, when in fact, the primary culprits are often identified within Westminster itself.

Political Partisan Stances

The political landscape is further complicated by the divergent stances of the major political parties. The Conservative Party, currently in power, is proposing a hard Brexit, while the Labour Party is advocating for a slightly less hard exit from the Single Market. The backbencher members of both parties are further fragmented, with some supporting a soft Brexit and others calling for a no-deal scenario reminiscent of a Mad Max: Fury Road scenario.

Given this internal division, the UK risks a no-deal scenario, where lacking consensus on a Brexit deal leads to a situation where trade and commerce are severely disrupted. In such a case, the government might be compelled to negotiate a trade deal with a newfound but fictional nation, the "Bullet Farm," as an attempt to mitigate the turmoil.

The Path to Unfolding Scenarios

Several potential paths are on the horizon:

No Deal: The lack of agreement may force the UK into a no-deal Brexit, leading to significant economic and social turmoil. Government's Proposed Deal: The Conservative government's hard Brexit deal, which was previously defeated by a large margin, might be passed by an unlikely alliance between the governing and opposition parties to avoid chaos. General Election: A general election is a highly probable scenario, given the current political climate. Both the Conservative and Labour parties would need to navigate and present policy platforms, with Brexit inevitably playing a central role. Second Referendum: A second referendum could offer a democratic solution, providing a mandate for the desired Brexit outcome. However, the logistics and potential manipulation of such an outcome remain uncertain. Article 50 Extension: The UK may seek an extension to Article 50, which could lead to unpredictable and complex negotiations with EU partners.

Future Scenarios and Challenges

Should a no-deal scenario occur or the government's hard Brexit deal pass, the impact on the UK's economy and society would be significant. In such a scenario, essential services like water supplies would become scarce, necessitating alternative solutions.

In the event of a general election, both the Conservative and Labour parties would be forced to present comprehensive election manifestos, with Brexit remaining a central issue. It's unlikely that Jeremy Corbyn would downplay its significance, as the Conservative Party's record of governance would likely dominate the discourse.

In conclusion, the UK's political dynamics and the potential outcomes of its ongoing Brexit negotiations are highly interconnected and complex. Whether through a no-deal Brexit, a government-supported hard Brexit deal, a second referendum, or a general election, the path forward remains uncertain, fraught with challenges, and subject to both domestic and international scrutiny.