What if the Kaiser Had Pivoted from the Arms Race to Submarines?

Many histories of World War I start with a stark division: the titanic rivalry between Germany and Britain’s navies during the pre-war period. Fueled by the ambitions of their respective emperors and fueled by the onset of industrial warfare, both nations built up formidable fleets, each attempting to outdo the other. However, what if the Kaiser, rather than maintaining this arms race, decided to shift resources to submarine warfare? This hypothetical shift would change the trajectory of naval warfare and the entire conflict in ways unseen in history.

Background of the Arms Race

In the years leading up to the war, Germany and Britain raced to build up their navies. The roots of this naval competition lay in the industrial ability of the two nations and their ambitions to project power and control over international waters. The British, fearing German naval power, made significant investments in their Royal Navy, while the Germans sought to challenge the supremacy of the British fleet.

The Kaiser, Wilhelm II, viewed the navy as a key symbol of German power and prestige. He envisioned a fleet that could project German influence across the globe, but the reality of the arms race was a drain on resources and a destabilization of European geopolitics. In contrast, Britain’s naval strategy emphasized maintaining a dominant position over the seas, underpinning its global empire.

Germany’s Pivot to Submarines: A Divergent Strategic Path

Let’s imagine that rather than pouring resources into battleships, the Kaiser decided to invest instead in the development and use of submarines. This pivot would have profound implications, not only for the naval balance of power but for the outcome of the war itself.

Submarines, as a form of naval warfare, posed a new threat that could not be easily countered. They were far cheaper to produce and required fewer personnel to operate than battleships. Moreover, their ability to operate under the surface and surprise enemy fleets would have significantly increased their strategic value.

The Impact on Naval Warfare

The introduction of submarine warfare in a strategic guise could have upended traditional naval engagements. Instead of the predictable and often visible engagements of surface fleets, the use of submarines would have enabled more covert operations and surprise attacks. This could have led to a more unpredictable naval war, with each side having difficulty more effectively guarding against the other.

In the timeline that we know, when Germany introduced unrestricted submarine warfare in 1917, it triggered the entry of the United States into the war, thus shifting the balance of power. However, if submarines had been a strategic priority from the beginning, the navigation and maritime support systems required to conduct such an armada would have been vastly different. The deployment of submarine-launched missiles could have potentially changed the entire naval landscape, leading to more versatile and flexible naval operations.

The Strategic Advantage of Submarines

The use of submarines as a strategic weapon would have given Germany a significant advantage in terms of targeting and surprise. The range of submarines, combined with their ability to remain at sea for extended periods, would have allowed them to conduct operations far from their home ports.

Moreover, submarines could have been used to intercept supply lines and disrupt the movement of military and civilian ships. Their ability to target merchant vessels and disrupt trade routes would have put immense pressure on Britain’s ability to maintain its supply lines, thus weakening the overall war effort.

Changing the Course of World War I

If the Kaiser had shifted the focus to submarines, the outcome of the war could have been dramatically different. Britain’s naval supremacy, which played a crucial role in maintaining the morale and resupply of the allied forces, could have been severely impacted. This would have weakened the combined efforts of the allies, potentially leading to a faster or different conclusion of the war.

The introduction of submarines as a primary naval weapon could have also influenced the tactics and strategies of both sides. Germany might have employed a more aggressive and daring naval strategy, whereas Britain would have been compelled to develop countermeasures, such as the convoy system. The latter would have been a more significant challenge to the German U-boat fleet, potentially changing the course of the war.

Conclusion

While the hypothetical scenario of the Kaiser pivoting to submarines may be fascinating to imagine, the reality is that he and his advisors focused on the traditional methods of naval warfare. This decision followed a path that led to the catastrophic loss of life and the transformation of the naval landscape. The use of submarines could have altered the balance of power in an extraordinary way, potentially shifting the course of the war and the geopolitical maps of the 20th century.

Despite having made significant strides in submarine technology, Germany's failure to leverage this advantage fully due to the prioritization of battleships meant that the tide of war was not swayed in their favor. The contrast between the successful development and deployment of tanks by Britain and Germany's own efforts to catch up further underscores the complexity of strategic decisions in warfare.

Ultimately, the history of World War I is a testament to the importance of strategic foresight and the far-reaching consequences of technological innovation in warfare.