Predicting the 2018 Illinois Governors Race: Pritzker or Rauner?

As the 2018 Illinois Governors Race draws near, the question of who will win has become a subject of intense debate and speculation. Among the candidates, J.B. Pritzker stands out as the most likely victor. This article delves into the factors contributing to this prediction.

Demographic and Political Imbalance

Illinois: A State of Diversity and Division

Illinois, a state that is long from north to south and covers a significant portion of the continental United States, is known for its diversity in politics, culture, and economy. However, its unity is questionable. The state's population is concentrated in a few counties, creating an imbalance where the majority of the state's representatives drive the state's laws without fully considering the needs of the entire population.

More than 50% of the state's population resides in only 6 out of the 102 counties. These counties, primarily in the Chicago area, have disproportionate representation in the state legislature, leading to laws that may meet the needs of the Chicago area but are completely unsuitable for the rural southern part of the state. Conversely, what southern Illinois needs is often not feasible in the Chicago metro area.

J.B. Pritzker's Lack of Accommodation

Indifference to State Integration

While Bruce Rauner, the incumbent governor, has faced significant challenges in accommodating both ends of the state, his efforts have been blocked by the Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives, Mike Madigan. J.B. Pritzker, on the other hand, has not even pretended to strive for a balanced approach. Given the population imbalance in favor of the Chicago area, Pritzker is more likely to secure a win, which may exacerbate the exodus of residents from the rest of the state to the Chicago area.

Physical Characteristics and Political Outcomes

Candidate Height and Electoral Performance

Interestingly, the height of candidates has shown a correlation with electoral outcomes. Incumbents who are taller than their challengers generally do not lose elections. This height advantage may contribute slightly to Pritzker's potential victory.

Muddiness of Illinois Elections

Political Strategy and Endorsements

While both sides have engaged in intense mudslinging, the Republican stance on the issue of veterans home fire may be a strategic misstep, as veterans are typically more conservative.

Illinois elections are notoriously muddied, and there are many other angles and offensive strategies at play. The Chicago Tribune has endorsed Rauner, but it's unlikely that a single endorsement will significantly sway the outcome.

Endgame Analysis

A Gravitation Towards Blue Dominance

The state is largely blue, with significant influence from the ruling political machine. The Speaker of the House, Mike Madigan, holds considerable power and is often blamed for the state's problems. Rauner, in his first term, cannot be held responsible for decades of fiscal mismanagement. However, the fiscal nightmare in Cook County, particularly in Chicago, drags down the rest of the state.

Despite the challenges, the trend is towards a solid blue state. J.B. Pritzker is likely to win the election, though the exodus of residents from the rest of the state to the Chicago area may continue.

Conclusion

The 2018 Illinois Governors Race is shaping up to be a battle between J.B. Pritzker and Bruce Rauner. While Rauner faces numerous challenges, Pritzker's potential win is strengthened by the state's political imbalance and the prevailing sentiment towards blue dominance. The exodus from rural areas to Chicago may continue, influenced by the outcome of the election.