Insights into the 2020 Democratic Primaries and Bernie Sanders' Visibility

The 2020 Democratic primaries are about more than just who will run against President Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Behind the scenes, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is actively working to ensure a nominee who aligns with their establishment interests. Bernie Sanders, a candidate known for his democratic socialist policies and criticism of the establishment, remains a significant threat to this plan. This article will explore the key factors at play and the complex dynamics within the Democratic party.

Predicting the Democratic Nominee

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is known for its ability to influence outcomes, especially with its control over super delegates. As of mid-January, the 771 super delegates, who are pledged to no one, could potentially swing the nomination. According to renowned political analysts like Nate Silver and 538, Bernie Sanders has a significant advantage.

The latest betting odds from Vegas oddsmakers also support this view:

40% - Nobody gets half the delegates 40% - Bernie gets at least half the delegates 20% - All other possibilities

These odds reflect the current betting trends and give a clear indication of the race's dynamics.

Key Players and Their Strategies

Several prominent candidates, including Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar, have so far failed to persuade the non-Bernie delegates to change their stance. As a result, the DNC is now turning to Mike Bloomberg, a billionaire Republican, to try and steer the nomination away from Bernie. However, history suggests that Bloomberg too will likely fail in his attempt to persuade delegations.

Super Delegates, those who are not directly elected by the primary voters, play a crucial role in the nomination process. Currently, 3979 of these delegates are free to change their endorsements, and if Bernie wins a significant number of primary votes, it's highly likely that many of these super delegates will join him.

Contested Convention and Beyond

A contested convention is a distinct possibility. This scenario would play out if Bernie does not secure a majority on the first ballot, which he is currently leading in many early primary states. In such a case, the nomination could remain open for weeks or even months as delegates continue to gather and adjust their endorsements.

The political pundits and Super Delegates' backing of Bernie is quite evident. If Bernie reaches a stage of near-nomination, expect strong endorsements and delegate movements. This rapid change in support could move the nomination in his favor, much like the thawing of political ice seen in recent years.

Conclusion

The 2020 Democratic primaries are far from over, and many factors can yet influence the outcome. However, Bernie Sanders' visibility and increasing support among Super Delegates and political analysts make him a formidable contender for the nomination. As the race progresses, it will be fascinating to see how the dynamics shift and whether the DNC's efforts to thwart Sanders will prove effective.

Stay tuned for updates and analysis as the Democratic primaries continue to unfold.