Introduction to a New Fate/stay night Scenario

In this article, we explore how the Fate/stay night storyline would be altered if Gilgamesh and Kirei Kotoki were to die at the end of Flower (Zero). We will consider the implications of these deaths on the Holy Grail War and the various paths that the story could take. This analysis will draw on existing sources, particularly the work of Shimon Brand, for insights into the character dynamics and potential outcomes.

Assumptions and Background

To make this scenario possible, we must consider the following assumptions:

Kirei is killed by Kiritsugu and is not revived. Gilgamesh is killed by Saber’s Excalibur as she destroys the Holy Grail at the end of the Holy Grail War. The Fuyuki Fire still occurs, and Kiritsugu still finds Shirou Emiya. Bazett Fraga McRemitz is brought over to Japan to participate in the war, where she will fight alongside Lancer. Shirou Emiya still sees Archer and Lancer clash and gets involved in the war in the exact same way. Though Kirei's influence is absent, Rin Tohsaka still retains her original personality.

With these assumptions in place, we can now explore the potential changes to the Holy Grail War and the possible outcomes based on the different routes.

Teams and Their Composition

Team Rin

Shirou Emiya Rin Tohsaka Saber Archer

Team Caster

Souichiro Kuzuki Caster Assassin

The composition of Team Caster is dependent on the route chosen by the player.

Team Bazett

Bazett Fraga McRemitz Lancer

Team Illya

Illyasviel von Einzbern Berserker

Team Matou

Shinji Matou Rider (Fate and UBW routes) Zouken Matou Sakura Matou True Assassin (Heaven's Feel route)

Note that Team Matou is eliminated in two out of three routes.

Character Dynamics and Potential Alliances

Bazett deeply respects Lancer. She has wanted to “save” him since childhood and consistently listens to his opinion. Similarly, Lancer respects Bazett, making it highly unlikely that they would ally with Caster or employ underhanded methods such as betrayal.

Team Matou faces elimination in two out of three routes, possibly due to the absence of Kirei and the interference of Zouken.

Team Bazett vs. Team Rin

Given the current balance of power, Team Bazett is overwhelmingly more likely to win against Team Rin. Team Rin might stand a chance only if they can use Saber to kill Bazett while keeping Lancer occupied. This outcome is dependent on Bazett running out of command seals and Saber maintaining her focus.

Alternatively, Shirou and Rin could switch servants, making Saber powerful enough to potentially defeat Lancer while Archer can finally take down Bazett. However, Archers inherent loyalty to Shirou may prevent him from agreeing to this arrangement.

Despite these considerations, Team Rin may still opt for an alliance with Team Bazett over facing Team Illya alone. An alliance between these teams is highly likely, enhancing their chances of defeating Berserker.

Strategic Implications

With an alliance between Team Bazett and Team Rin, their odds of defeating Berserker are reasonably high. Once Berserker is defeated, their attention may turn to Team Caster, who may possess powerful magecraft but will ultimately be overwhelmed by the combined strength of two first-rate mages and three knight classes.

Should Archer decide to betray Rin and side with Caster, it would be the perfect opportunity for his plan to come to fruition. However, the outcome of such a battle is uncertain.

Final Considerations

In a Holy Grail War where Zouken does not get involved, the odds would be divided: Team Bazett has a 50% chance, while Team Rin and Team Caster have 30% and 20% chances, respectively.

However, in a Heaven's Feel-like Holy Grail War, the Matou route is highly likely to prevail due to the absence of Kirei. The result hinges on Bazett's ability to fill Kirei's role. Bazett, lacking knowledge about Zouken, might fail to take the necessary steps to stop him and the shadow, thus tilting the scales in favor of Team Matou.