Could Robb Stark Have Won the War Despite His Betrothals?

The narrative often circumvents crucial aspects of the strategic and political landscape of the War of the Five Kings. Central to this debate is the question of whether Robb Stark could have won the war if he had only kept his original betrothal to Walder Frey's daughter. The answer lies in an in-depth analysis of the events leading up to, and during, the Red Wedding, and the broader influences that shaped the outcome.

Insights into Robb Stark's Strategic Errors

Many in the storytelling world believe that Robb's ultimate defeat at the Red Wedding was due to his decision to betroth himself to Jeyne Westerling (or Talisa Maegyr, depending on the story). However, this perspective overlooks the premeditated betrayal of the Freys, which was rooted in their own interests and ambitions long before any betrothals were discussed.

From the outset, Roose Bolton and Walder Frey were strategizing the betrayal of Robb Stark. Evidence abounds in the form of communications between Boltons and Frey that predated any mention of Robb's betrothed. The Freys' intentions were not dependent on whether Robb would marry their daughter; their plan was to manipulate and eventually betray him.

If Robb had married the Frey daughter, the Freys would have waited for a suitable moment, likely after the birth of a child, before executing their plan. The marriage would have provided them with the political leverage needed to consolidate their power in the North, but it would not have altered their ultimate betrayal of Robb.

The Tyrells: The Crucial Turning Point

The key to understanding Robb Stark's defeat lies not in his personal mistakes or alliances, but in the pivotal role of the Tyrells. Once the Tyrells entered the fray and allied themselves with House Lannister, the tide of the war shifted dramatically in favor of the Lannisters and their coalition.

Robb Stark’s losses were documented: the Northern army annihilated 25,000 Lannister soldiers, and they seized control of half the Westerlands, along with massive resources. Yet, nothing could turn the war in favor of the Starks because of the Tyrell alliance. Regardless of how many battles Robb won and how many political decisions he made, the Tyrells’ support for the Lannisters was the final nail in the coffin of Northern ambitions.

The Tyrell alliance marked the point of no return. As early as the death of Margaery Tyrell’s husband, whether it was Joffrey or Tommen, the fate of Robb and the North was sealed. The collective acknowledgment of this critical event by both allies and enemies signified the end of the Stark influence.

The Impact of Other Events

Various other events, such as Theon Greyjoy's betrayal, did not change the fundamental balance of power. Similarly, the release of Jaime Lannister and the departure of the Karstarks were minor complications that could not reverse the course of the war.

Even had Robb made all the correct strategic and tactical decisions, the massive numerical superiority of the Lannisters, reinforced by the Tyrells, ensured his ultimate defeat. Though his actions and decisions had strategic importance, the alliance of the Tyrells with the Lannisters was a decisive factor.

In summary, while Robb Stark's personal decisions did have an impact on his journey, the real turning point in the war was the Tyrells' decision to align with the Lannisters. This alliance tipped the balance of power and ensured that no matter what else happened, Robb Stark's hopes for victory were dashed.