Atlanta Braves' Chances of Grabbing the Number 1 Seed in the National League

It is currently Saturday, September 21st, and the Atlanta Braves must win an impressive 7 out of their remaining 11 games, while the Los Angeles Dodgers must lose 3 out of their remaining 6 games, for the Braves to emerge with the best record in the National League. This scenario, however, seems highly improbable given the current form of both teams.

Current Standings and Margins

Heading into these final weeks of the regular season, the Atlanta Braves are standing at 93-58, while the Dodgers sit at 97-54, with only 11 games remaining for each team. Filling the gap of four games would require the Braves to win at an almost impossible rate of 80% (7 out of 9 games). Even if we adjust the required wins for the Braves to 6, the odds remain stacking against them as the Dodgers could conceivably lose just 2 out of 7 games to claim the top seed.

Braves' Strength and Weaknesses

Despite being the underdog, the Braves possess a formidable lineup, especially in offense. Their performance has been steady and impressive throughout the season, but when it comes to the playoffs, the success often hinges on the performance of the pitching staff. The Dodgers, however, have the edge in pitching, which is a critical factor in deciding the playoff series.

Dodgers' Performance and Strategy

The Dodgers have been maintaining a winning streak and have been experimenting with their lineups and bullpen tactics, putting players on rest. Despite these changes, the Dodgers continue to perform at a .600 winning rate, indicating that their strategy is working and they have no signs of sliding into a slump in the final weeks of the season. This strong performance makes it even more challenging for the Braves to overtake them for the top seed.

Furthermore, the Braves' schedule is not significantly more difficult than the Dodgers' in the remaining games. Neither team has many challenging matchups left on their slate, which means a winning streak on the part of the Braves would be essential to secure the top seed. However, achieving that winning streak and overcoming the Dodgers' strong performance seems highly unlikely.

Historical Context and Odds Analysis

Historically, when playoff contention is tight, the strength of the pitching staff often becomes a deciding factor. The Dodgers' pitching depth offers a significant advantage, which makes it even more improbable for the Braves to catch them, especially given their deficit of four games in the loss column.

The current odds argue that the Dodgers will maintain their winning form and secure their place as the top seed in the National League. The Braves' chances, while not impossible, are significantly outweighted by the Dodgers' current winning streak and their ability to rest key players without compromising their performance.

As of September 16, 2017, the situation was quite similar, with the Braves and Dodgers both having 11 games left and the Dodgers only four games ahead. With a magic number of 8 needed by the Braves, it would take a legendary collapse by the Dodgers and a high-streak victory for the Braves to overtake them. Given the close nature of the game, these scenarios are highly unlikely.

Therefore, considering the current standings, the remaining schedules, and the historical performance of both teams, the odds are strongly against the Braves securing the number one seed in the National League.